Measuring National Progress, NBS Data, And Scepticism – Bayo Onanuga

Recent reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have become a focal point of criticism and scepticism, especially by the political opposition and perpetual doubters of any positive report about our country.

In its Q2 labour survey report, the NBS says the unemployment rate fell from 5.3 % in Q1 to 4.3% in Q2. Compared to the unemployment rate of 5.3% in Q4 2022, the report shows some progress, as it also indicates a lower level of youth unemployment.

The NBS also reported that GDP growth in the third quarter rose to 3.46% year-on-year in real terms, higher than the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023 and above the second quarter growth of 3.19%.

The report stated that the GDP’s performance in the third quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.19% and contributed 53.58% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.14%, from the growth of 1.30% recorded in the third quarter of 2023. The industry sector’s growth was 2.18%, an improvement from 0.46% recorded in the third quarter of 2023.

“In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N71,131,091.07 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher than the third quarter of 2023, which recorded an aggregate GDP of N60,658,600.37 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.26%.
Amid a singer’s uninformed opinion that went viral on social media that our country’s economy is in shambles, the NBS sounded positive, reporting that the economy is improving, as proven by the successive growth from Quarter one of 2024 up until Quarter 3.

Ordinarily, such positive reports should elicit hope and joy that our country’s economy is getting out of the woods, but they were instead met with scepticism from some quarters.

Unfounded allegations by critics that the data was manipulated fail to recognise the transparent and robust methodologies employed by the NBS. These methodologies are continually reviewed and improved to ensure reliability, providing a solid foundation for the data presented.

In contrast, when the NBS reported that inflation figures rose, these same voices quickly endorsed the report, illustrating some Nigerians’ selective acceptance of data based on preconceived narratives and confirmation bias rather than its authenticity.

It is crucial to emphasise that the NBS operates as an independent entity committed to providing accurate and objective data. These statistics are not mere numbers; they are derived from comprehensive research and analysis, reflecting the multifaceted realities of our national economy. The processes align with global best practices, and the bureau’s methodologies are continually reviewed and improved to ensure reliability.

Moreover, the positive economic indicators should be viewed as milestones in the ongoing efforts by the Tinubu administration to strengthen Nigeria’s economy.

The figures by NBS reflect that a combination of government initiatives is yielding fruits, boosting the service sector and the stock and bond market, creating jobs, and driving sustainable growth. These developments, sooner than later, will translate into improved living standards, increased job opportunities, and a more robust economy for all Nigerians.

While challenges remain, dismissing progress in a knee-jerk manner, as some Nigerians do, negates the hard work of the government and the private sector, which contributed to these achievements.

The same way some Nigerians dismiss and deride economic data is very prevalent on the judicial front and in the work of the Independent National Electoral Commission. When a politician wins an election or a legal case, the song is that it has been a fair contest and justice has been delivered; however, when a candidate or party loses, the supporters binge on derision against INEC or the judges. Only recently, a prominent Nigerian went abroad to dismiss the 2023 election as a travesty because his candidate did not win the poll or the legal challenge instituted.

As Nigerians, we must respect our judicial system, even when the outcome does not favour us. The symbol of justice is a pendulum, and judges uphold justice based on the rule of law, without public pressure or sentiment. Accusations of corruption, whenever verdicts defy personal expectations, undermine the integrity of our courts and the democratic principles we cherish.

We must turn the page over these matters and stop clinging to scepticism when presented with favourable data reflecting our nation’s progress. Those who truly want Nigeria to become a great country we all claim we seek will not use every opportunity to take out the flames of national progress. While the challenges remain and are being addressed, we must always recognise and celebrate every progress.
– Onanuga is Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Information and Strategy