2023: Will Tinubu’s Presidential Ambition Suffer As He Avoids Obasanjo?

As the contest for the 2023 Presidency tightens, aspirants have set the ball in motion by embarking on political visits to different parts of the country under the guise of consultation.

One of the aspirants who has indicated serious interest in running and does not want to leave any stone unturned is the national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu. For the purpose of his ambition, Tinubu has journeyed across the Northern and Southern regions of the country, paying courtesy visits to traditional rulers, former political office holders and other dignitaries.

On all trips, he ensured that his ambition was registered in the minds of his host and also sought their support.

POLITICS NIGERIA, however, observed that the former Lagos Governor has avoided the country home of Former President ,Olusegun Obasanjo despite visiting Ogun state twice.

This newspaper learnt that this is not unconnected to the age-long unsettled difference between the two former public administrators. In this analysis, POLITICS NIGERIA reviews the rancour between the duo and how this may impact Tinubu’s Presidential aspiration.

Deliberate move?

On February 12, Tinubu visited the Alake of Egbaland, His Royal Majesty, Oba Adedotun Aremu Gbadebo, to seek his blessings. Tinubu had earlier paid the same courtesy visit to Awujale and Paramount ruler of Ijebuland, His Royal Majesty, Oba Sikiru Kayode Adetona.

While Alake’s palace is located in the capital city of Ogun state, Awujale’s palace is situated in Ijebu-Ode, a major town in the eastern parts of the state. According to Google map, both palaces are less than a 2-hour trip to Ota, the country home of the former President.

Political observers say this means that both leaders are yet to work out their differences over a decade after they had left public office. The relationship between Tinubu and Obasanjo has been unpleasant since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, when both politicians held public offices.

Mr Obasanjo was Nigeria’s president for eight years between 1999 and 2007 while Tinubu governed Lagos within the same period. The genesis of the rift was based on their disagreement on resource allocation and other key governmental issues.

Recall that in January, 2019, Tinubu described Obasanjo as an election rigger without peer in Nigeria. While Mr Obasanjo threw his weight behind his former deputy, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Tinubu was in support of the re-election bid of President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.

“Obasanjo is the greatest election rigger in this country,” Tinubu had said in the build-up of the 2019 Presidential election.

Obasanjo’s role in previous elections

After he bowed out of office in 2007, the former President has been instrumental to the emergence of successive governments. His immediate successor, late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua, contested under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Obasanjo took his campaign to different parts of the country amid reports that the late President was being hospitalised at that time.

Events, however, took a different turn when the relationship between Obasanjo and Yar’Adua’s successor, former President, Goodluck Jonathan fell out in 2015.

In the heat of the crisis, Obasanjo tore his PDP membership card and worked against Jonathan who was seeking reelection. Obasanjo, instead, mulled his support for President Muhammadu Buhari, Jonathan’s major challenger then.

After Buhari was sworn in in 2015, Obasanjo was one of those who criticised some policies and actions of the administration. These culminated into his vehement opposition to Buhari’s second term bid in 2019.

To ensure that Buhari was not reelected, Obasanjo supported former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar. But the results of the 2019 election defied Obasanjo’s influence as Buhari defeated Abubakar.

Recently, Obasanjo told a PDP delegation that he is no longer into partisan politics but will keep contributing to nation-building. “But bear in mind, I am no longer in partisan politics. And there is nothing that will bring me back to partisan politics. But I will always be interested in what is good for Nigeria. And anybody who wants to have my advice, I will unstintingly give it,” he said.

Will Tinubu’s ambition suffer the Obasanjo’s effect?

Some political commentators who spoke with POLITICS NIGERIA believe that Obasanjo is a relic of a bygone order and is no longer influential in the scheme of things.

“Look at the 2019 election. Obasanjo’s relevance in the political scene has waned and he may add nothing or little to any candidate,” Kunle Adigun, a Lagos-based lawyer said.

But Rafiu Bolaji, a public affairs analyst, said irrespective of what transpired in 2019, Obasanjo’s influence cannot be undermined and it goes a long way in anyone’s emergence.

Bolaji maintained that Tinubu should extend an olive branch to the former President.

“If Obasanjo can reconcile with Atiku, a one-time arch enemy, reconciling with Tinubu won’t be a problem.”

 

-POLITICS NIGERIA